Suchergebnisse

We show in a simple -- but robust -- theoretical monetary exchange rate model that the sign of the covariance between an inflation surprise and the nominal exchange rate can tell us something about how monetary policy is conducted. Specifically, we show that 'bad news' about inflation -- that it is higher than expected -- can be 'good news' for the nominal exchange rate -- that it appreciates on this news -- if the central bank has an inflation target that it implements with a Taylor Rule. The empirical work in this paper examines point sampled data on inflation announcements and the reaction of nominal exchange rates in 10 minute windows around these announcements for 10 countries and several different inflation measures for the period July 2001 through March 2005. When we pool the data, we do in fact find that bad news about inflation is indeed good news for the nominal exchange rate, that the results are statistically significant, and that the r-square is substantial, in excess of 0.25 for core measures of inflation. We also find significant differences comparing the inflation targeting countries and the two non-inflation targeting countries.

The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product-an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins

This paper studies some interesting implications of economic integration in the context of a neoclassical model of international trade, optimal public investment, and capital mobility. Due the endogeneity of the productive public capital stock, international capital mobility, while equalizing returns to capital, can lead to a divergence in the wages earned by labor. We also demonstrate that international capital mobility can set off an "infrastructure" investment boom. If the benefits of public capital spill over across national borders, governments in the Nash equilibrium spend the "1992" dividend on an excessive provision of public services, attempting to free ride on the public capital of their neighbors.